In what could herald a significant shift in Nigeria’s energy pricing landscape, the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, may drop to approximately N800 per litre in the coming weeks, following declining global crude prices and the renewed implementation of the naira-for-crude initiative.
Industry stakeholders disclosed on Wednesday that the convergence of lower crude oil prices—currently hovering around $65 per barrel—and a shift away from foreign exchange-dependent importation could drive local petrol prices closer to the N800 mark. Should crude prices slide further to $50 per barrel, they predict pump prices could drop as low as N650 to N700 per litre.
This development comes amid multiple price reductions by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has now slashed its ex-depot petrol price to N835 per litre—the second cut in less than a week and the third in six weeks. The new price represents a 3.5% reduction from N865 per litre announced six days prior and a N45 drop from the N880 recorded last Wednesday.
A statement by the Dangote Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, confirmed the reduction, emphasizing the company’s commitment to affordable, high-quality petroleum products. According to the statement, the new gantry price includes statutory levies by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
In tandem with Dangote’s pricing strategy, its key partners—including MRS, Ardova (AP), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil—will offer petrol between N890 and N920 per litre across various regions. Prices in Lagos will drop to N890 per litre, while other areas such as the South-West, North-Central, and South-East will see adjusted rates ranging from N900 to N920.
Chiejina projected that the continued downward trajectory in PMS prices would positively affect the broader economy, easing the financial burden on consumers and fostering economic recovery. He underscored that Dangote Refinery’s pricing policies are backed by sufficient reserves to meet domestic demand and support exports, thereby strengthening Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and energy security.
Further supporting this outlook is the recent revival of the naira-for-crude arrangement between the Federal Government and local refiners—a strategic policy aimed at reducing reliance on foreign exchange for petroleum imports. The Ministry of Finance confirmed this policy’s reactivation last week following a high-level meeting between Finance Minister Wale Edun and Dangote Group executives.
“This is not a short-term fix,” the ministry emphasized. “It is a long-term strategy designed to enhance sustainable local refining and ensure energy security for the nation.”
This revived policy has already yielded results. According to data from the Nigerian Ports Authority and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, a total of 117,000 metric tonnes (approximately 156.9 million litres) of petrol were imported between April 8 and 16, 2025. These were delivered via six vessels through the Tin Can Port in Lagos and the Calabar Port in Cross River State.
The spot import parity cost of petrol also fell to N853.12 per litre, down from N856.75 per litre the previous week. This aligns closely with Dangote’s new ex-depot pricing and intensifies competitive pressure on private importers, who are now facing potential losses due to higher landing costs and existing inventories.
Industry analysts believe this emerging price competition could ignite a “price war,” compelling importers and depot owners to adjust their pricing models or risk losing market share. Olatide Jeremiah, a petroleum industry expert, noted that Dangote’s pricing advantage, backed by local crude supply, has disrupted the market dynamics.
“Private depot owners are under pressure,” he said. “Many still have stocks acquired at higher costs. This shift will benefit consumers as prices continue to fall.”
However, not all stakeholders are optimistic. Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, cautioned that such frequent price fluctuations could destabilize the sector and pose financial challenges for retail operators.
On the other hand, Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), linked the ongoing reductions directly to the renewed naira-for-crude deal, stating that its successful implementation should reflect in retail pricing.
“The government’s decision to resume local crude allocation to refineries is beginning to yield results,” he noted. “Once crude hits $50 per barrel, we might see petrol selling for N650 to N700 per litre.”
Despite these developments, retail pump prices remain largely unchanged in most areas, with the benefits of the wholesale price cuts yet to fully reach consumers.
Still, with a combination of strategic policy shifts, aggressive local refining operations, and favorable global oil trends, analysts suggest that Nigerian motorists may soon enjoy substantial relief at the fuel pump—potentially bringing petrol costs down to levels not seen in over a year.
